Universities and their Prospects in the Age of COVID-19

This week's blog focuses on the effects of COVID-19  on Universities generally; their responses and lessons learned in building a better future. It is a prelude to a discussion on Universities in the Caribbean subregion  that have been greatly affected by the global economic picture with differential outcomes. These include slow economic recovery, increasing public debt burdens, negative effects on emerging markets  and increasing  bankruptcies.  Placing emphasis on digital platforms to redirect social measures and reduce poverty shocks are particularly relevant for the welfare of the Universities and their communities. The case for a better future revolves around  viewing higher education as an investment in human capital.  
 
Approximately a year ago, while  preparing for my Inaugural address as Chancellor of the University of Guyana,  I was extremely excited by  the Report on the Global Convention on the Recognition of Qualifications concerning Higher Education adopted by UNESCO’s General Conference in November 2019. The novelty of the Global Convention is that it is designed to facilitate academic mobility between regions and predicated on the assumption that  students studying  outside their home country will be increased from 4 million  to an  estimated 8 million  by 2020-2021 academic year. This seemed such an opportunity   to be grasped in expanding the geography of learning for students not only at UG but also in the CARICOM Community and the wider Caribbean. The Coronavirus pandemic has upended the roll out of the grand design of the Global Convention.  While its concept remains,  the narrative has drastically shifted.   University leaders around the world now have  to take  decisions based on rapidly changing variables that make meaningful predictions difficult. 
 
Pivoting in two Directions 
 
During this week two virtual consultations have placed the challenges to the Global Convention in context.  First, the London School of Economics (LSE), as part of its 125 year celebration hosted a curtain raiser of the 2020 IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in which Kristalina Georgieva IMF Managing Director highlighted policy priorities in the difficult climb faced by the global economy. It was determined to be long, uneven‪, uncertain and prone to setbacks   Overcoming the Crisis and Building a More Resilient Economy .
 
The second, a panel sponsored by the International Association of Universities on which a follow up blog will be grounded  focused on the   principles of leadership that help mitigate the present challenges and shape the future of universities.  The panelists  including Sir Hilary Beckles, Vice Chancellor of UWI, focused on the financial, systemic and educational ramifications of the pandemic and shared their experiences and decision-making process during these times.
 
Sample of University Responses 
 
Having to write recommendations for students' applications to graduate programmes in Europe and the USA brought me in direct contact with the reality that  the coronavirus pandemic has forced virtually every country on Earth to ration physical social contact. The Times Higher  Educational Supplement (September 2020) provides a sample of responses of higher educational institutions. Most striking is its reference to registrations at Universities across European  being actually more than 7 per cent up on last year. Besides, universities in many jurisdictions have had to comply with national regulations. For example,  Universities-UK, a national collective is coordinating responses to the challenges facing universities in the UK.  These challenges include student and staff health and welfare, admission issues, and longer term impact.  In Germany, its academic year was delayed by a month, to the beginning of November. Universities in that country have generally agreed to  keep an estimated 90 per cent of classes online. In the Netherlands  which has established an intelligent  (sector focused) rather than mandatory lockdown, all 14 public universities have agreed on a blended system of  course delivery with virtual and limited face to face teaching with operations  between 11am- 3pm  and 8-10 pm.  In both cases,  lecturers, who in March, scrambled to switch their courses online, are now being asked to convert some of their teaching back into physically distanced spaces with online fall back at all stages.
 
Over a third of US colleges and universities fully reopened in August. That this was risky is illustrated by statistics showing that at  the beginning of the month, the US had about 55 000 new cases per day and no federal covid-19 control plan or coordinated vision for safely reopening universities. This scenario has played out at universities nationwide. The New York Times Tracking COVID  at US Colleges and Universities ( September 25)  shows that there have been 130,000 cases in 1,300 higher education institutions 
 
A recent LSE study shows that this current COVID generation is estimated to  pay a  high price estimated at US$ 1.5 B in missed out education.  "They can’t  travel and can’t get jobs. Entering job market during pandemic results in scarring income earning capabilities for decades." Under these circumstances,  education is the best option. According to the Director of LSE, we owe this COVID-19 generation a huge investment in their education in order to improve their employment chances in the future.
 
 
Tuition Fees and  The Financial Bottom Line
 
At the same time there are demands from students worldwide for a reduction of fees in response to the emphasis being placed on online learning. This was  dramatized in the US, where many colleges  flung open their doors to new students – and their tuition fees, of course – triggering, as predicted, a wave of coronavirus outbreaks, hasty closures and condemnation of perceived recklessness. Yet a federal judge  largely dismissed a lawsuit in which a group of Northeastern University students sought refunds of their tuition and other payments after the university, like most colleges in the country, closed its campuses and shifted to remote learning because of the coronavirus.
 
Still, the experience of the pandemic seems to have confirmed the risks of over-reliance on international fees by some universities  Even prior to the pandemic, a scramble for these fees  which according to the Times Educational Supplement (September2020) " has not only made UK universities financially vulnerable but also created homogeneous departments, often overly dominated by Chinese students."  
 
Universities-UK has made the case similar to that in most European countries that the  costs for online learn have risen enormously.  Cloud space, for instance, has to be rented to host video lectures because local networks are unable to handle the massive spike in traffic. The preparation and repurposing of learning facilities as safe spaces have also added to operational  arrangements. The British Medical Journal (September 2020) has advocated for provision for  expanded consideration on care for students and staff including access to ventilation, updated considerations on food service, contact tracing , recognizing  and following up on signs and symptoms of COVID-19 by  screening, and testing, coping and support and Direct Service Providers (DSPs).
 
Conclusions: Lessons for building a Better Future
 
The hope of that the  UNESCO Global Convention on Higher Education will reemerge from the devastation of the coronavirus is being kept alive.  But this will depend on how well we learn from the  primary lessons that have emerged, including:
 

• The importance of curbing community transmission before reopening for business as usual.  
• Recognizing that community spread can be considered minimal if there is a seven day rolling average scientifically specified cases to bend the curve. 
• The value of quarantining before or on arrival of students and staff on campus even if a university lies in an area with low community transmission.
• Viral transmission between asymptomatic students  or staff can occur at lightning speed
• Recognizing that adopting symptom based covid-19 screening is not a robust prevention strategy. 
• The acquisition of equipment for the needy or differentially abled students and staff, mindful of inequalities that would "leave some behind" 
• innovations in technological applications that are sustainable beyond the duration of the current phases of the coronavirus .
• Making provision for the changing modalities in the delivery and reach of education. 
• Creating a new funding models for universities with greater emphasis  on public/private partnership.  

 
 
Eddie Greene