Biden Resetting US Foreign Policy with Implications for the Caribbean

​In recent weeks  many  articles have been released on the future of US Caribbean Foreign Policy relations. Among them include insightful contributions by   Sir Ronald Sanders,  Ambassador Curtis Ward and Professor Percy Hintzen.  Together with other knowledgeable spokespersons,  there are sentiments ranging from cautious to enthusiastic optimism that the Caribbean will be on the radar of the  Biden-Harris administration. It has been generally agreed that immediate policies may revolve around cooperation in rolling out a coronavirus vaccine, tackling the climate resilience, and reinstating the principles  of multilateralism and diversity.   But there are also possible roadblocks like China, impediments to US defense strategy, the geopolitical environment and the chaotic signals of an unprecedented transition period that could pose challenges to rational diplomacy. 
 
The blurred Domestic and Foreign Policy Lens 
 
Optimism, therefore, must be placed in the context of a transition period in which outgoing President  Trump and his allies attempt to delegitimize  the Biden-Harris Government, disrupt American democratic processes and deepen partisan and racial polarization. 
 
While the decline began well before the election of Donald Trump as President in 2016, he has severely damaged the norms, and to some extent the institutions on which American democracy is rooted. Most credible sources refer to his constant effusion of lies and disinformation; his relentless assaults on the media, the courts, the career civil service, and the political opposition; his efforts to politicize and demand personal loyalty from the military, the intelligence apparatus, and federal law enforcement; his misuse of presidential power and his quest  for political and financial advantage are all glaring illustrations. 
 
Many countries and regions like the Caribbean may no doubt have foreign policies cued up for recognition. But the  maladies in USA  domestic political arena that must engage the immediate attention of the  Biden Presidency are  likely to blunt the  attention to all but the most important issues in the foreign policy agenda. 
 
 Coronavirus: ‘American exceptionalism that  Kills’ 
 
The coronavirus as a foreign policy issue will pivot on the judicious and equitable roll out of the vaccine produced by  multinational enterprises and anticipated to be available by the first quarter of 2021. This situation is much different to what other incoming Presidents faced.  Writing  in Foreign Policy magazine (November 18, 2020), James Palmer expands on the delusion of Donald Trump that American is ‘turning the corner’  even while the US government is failing while poorer countries flatten the curve. He starkly labels this  trend  as  “American exceptionalism kills.” It is  first and foremost what has to be overcome before an economic recovery can be achieved. Most Caribbean countries, especially those  tourism dependent economies,  will be severely affected by the new surge of the virus in the US and elsewhere just as they enter the peak season. They will require collaboration with the US  to place emphasis on stopping the spread and to  introduce robust  tools  to   closure or reopening of their economies  based on scientific models, both at source and destination countries. 
 
Surviving COVID-19 and Revival of the Economy-a Global Issue 
 
Economic revival is interconnected with measures to curb the COVID-19 spread.  An IDB  Report – “A Pandemic Surge and Evolving Policy Responses indicates that investing in infrastructure is  one of the most viable options for an economic revival.  The  Report advocates that fiscal space will remain an important constraint, but as   economic recovery emerges, additional resources would need to be  channeled into productivity-boosting infrastructure projects to further stimulate near term growth, and long-term development. This is a useful template, touted by Biden during his presidential campaign and flags an essential policy conjuncture  between the  Caribbean and the USA. Collective and unified approaches  to advocate for debt relief , forgiveness and resilience are necessary for the Caribbean  to insert its economic priorities linked to the COVID response.  The Caribbean with the support of the US has the opportunity to make its case in  various international theaters such as the UN and the G7, the World Bank and IMF.  There are also opportunities where Caribbean countries are involved in the hierarchy of leading multilateral agencies. Guyana now holds the chair of the G77 and China while  St Vincent and the Grenadines is a members of the UN Security Council. Not using these avenues to engage will be a missed opportunity.
 
On the same page with US on Climate Resilience 
 
Climate Change linked to economic revival is seen as a basis for  rekindling US global leadership. Biden’s appointment of former Secretary of State John Kerry to lead US re-entry into the Paris Agreement is a strong indication of this intention. The US-Caribbean Resilience partnership provides a practical entry point for the region with its  focus  on disaster management, risk reduction, disaster reliance funding.  Based on  its  geographic location, the Caribbean may yield longer term benefits by  ensuring that its   region-wide management integrates energy policy, disaster management and climate change impacts.https://www.cepal.org/en/publications/45098-enhancement-resilience-disasters-and-climate-change-caribbean-through
 
What is important is that the template tallies with a well-constructed  US-Caribbean Resilience Partnership Working Group in Barbados (October 2020) to which CARICOM States are committed. https://www.state.gov/successful-u-s-caribbean-resilience-partnership-working-group-in-barbados-concludes-with-9-5-million-in-disaster-resilience-funding/. This  partnership illustrates that the Caribbean does not need to reinvent the wheel but rather to chart a constructive path to ensure that its priorities are  included in the global platform in the reconstruction of US’ global leadership.  
 
The China Equation: A US-Caribbean Balancing Act 
 
China is an important pivot in the US- Caribbean foreign policy relations.  Today, they are more inherently hostile than  during Obama’s presidency.  As a recent Times story puts it, China has adopted “increasingly aggressive and at times punitive policies that force countries to play by its rules.” Trump challenged China’s ambitions in ways that his predecessors did not. He treated it as America’s most serious threat since the Soviet Union during the Cold War.  While Biden’s approach in principle may vary only slightly from Trump’s, it  will most likely  be implemented through softer diplomacy.   Trump’s  posture, is graphically referred by   Chinese   economist and London School of Economic Professor,   Key Jin as ‘a  strategic gift to China’.   Biden will no doubt be more concerned with building alliances with Japan, other South East Asia-Pacific, African and  European states,  all of which are worried about China’s rise. Many of these states  are locked into China’s development leadership captured during the diminished engagement by the US. In this context, a concerted Caribbean policy is more likely to  yield positive results for the region by allowing maneuverability in engaging both China and the USA simultaneously. 
 
Defense Strategy, Geopolitical Environment  and Diversity 
 
It is clear from the early cluster of Cabinet picks by President-elect Biden,  the priority he places on forging a robust  U.S. defense strategy and shaping the geopolitical environment. These have to do not only with China’s rise but with many unanswered but urgent questions:  how Russia’s resurgence intersect and challenge U.S. interests? how quickly can the bridge building with NATO occur? how will Iran and North Korea disrupt and destabilize US’ regional defense strategies? How will a range of non-state actors affect the defense landscape? What surprises or havoc will Trump reek to destabilize US defense strategy? What opportunities for U.S. defense and security exist in this complex environment? Where does the Caribbean fit?
 
The US Representative  to the UN, Thomas-Greenfield penned a piece  along with William J. Burns in  an article "The Transformation of Diplomacy: How to Save the State Department" in the Foreign Affairs November/December 2020 issue,  provides another preview of  the new thrust in US’ foreign policy strategy. It advocates that  "to start, the United States needs a top-to-bottom diplomatic surge. The Trump administration's unilateral diplomatic disarmament is a reminder that it is much easier to break than to build. The country doesn't have the luxury of waiting for a generational replenishment, marking time as new recruits slowly work their way up the ranks."
 
The indications are that the Caribbean and others countries  in the South may benefit from the diversification in the ranks of the Biden foreign policy team and the staff composition at the State Department. They are   likely to result in greater appreciation of the needs and virtues rather than dismissive ridicule of  the Trump administration. 
 
Closer to home it is unlikely that the US position on Venezuela is likely to be different except in tone. Yet it is most likely  to revert  to the rapprochement with Cuba which again will signal a convergence of interests between US and the Caribbean.
 
Conclusion
 
While not intending to intervene in the policies of a sovereign state,  the close ties between US and the Caribbean  make it appropriate for its states to join the ranks supporting the call  for US electoral reform. After all, any disarray in United States domestic politics tends to propel  ripple effects on global diplomatic waters.  The US  is almost alone among major democracies in taking so long to install a new head of state. The image of a divided nation  has  been exacerbated by the petulant travesty of Donald Trump who after  three weeks has yet to concede the elections he lost. In France, the president takes office within ten days of the election. In the United Kingdom, the moving trucks arrive at 10 Downing Street the morning after the incumbent loses. So too in Caribbean nations where peaceful electoral  outcomes are the hallmarks of their adherence to  democratic principles. This is fully illustrated in  the recent ‘COVID 19 elections in St Kitts and Nevis, Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica, St Vincent and the Grenadines and Belize.   That the United States takes two and a half months is reasonable in times of a  normal transition.   But  the  abnormality of Trump and Trumpism is likely to have lasting disruptive effects on US Democracy. This looks good only in comparison to Mexico, where the transition lasts an arduous five months and in the case in Guyana that ironically received threats of sanctions  from the Trump administration.   
 
 
Eddie Greene